Hold��em with Holloway, Vol. 32: The Perilous Decision to Call Off with Ace-Queen

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Jun 09, 2015 4 min read

During the 2015 World Series of Poker, I had the opportunity to meet Joe Ingersoll, who was kind enough to buy a copy of my World Series of Zombies (WSOZ) comic. Ingersoll considers himself an amateur poker player, but a student of the game.

��I study, practice, and train as opposed to my friends who just ��play,���� explained Ingersoll, who was one of the many to take a shot in The Colossus, the $565 buy-in Event #5 that drew a WSOP record-crushing 22,374 entries. He had hoped to survive Day 1b, but alas he fell at the end of the night in a hand he immediately second-guessed.

��My problem is I don��t have anyone to evaluate any hand decisions to learn from,�� said Ingersoll. ��I am happy with every decision I made, but I am not sure if the final one was the correct one or not. I was hoping you would maybe review and give me your opinion.��

Well Joe, it��d be my pleasure, though I must admit I��m certainly not the most qualified. Still, happy to offer my opinion.

The hand began with approximately 10 minutes left in Level 9 (300/600/75) and Ingersoll sitting with 10,475 in Seat 10. The only other short stack at the table, which Ingersoll had just joined, was Seat 7, while everyone else held a medium-to-large stack.

Ingersoll pointed out that the other short stack had been shoving in typical short-stack fashion, but the only hand he had shown was AxJx-offsuit.

��I have been card dead and holding on, but have failed recently to have any prime shoving opportunities to pick up some blinds,�� explained Ingersoll.

Ingersoll was in the big blind, and action folded to the other short stack in the cutoff who again open-pushed, this time for 9,950. The button and small blind both folded, and Ingersoll looked down at AxQx-offsuit.

Upon hearing this, my first reaction was that I��d much prefer to be shoving with ace-queen than calling off. However, given Ingersoll��s stack, the size of the blinds, and his opponent��s tendency to shove, I had to admit his hand looked pretty good.

Should Ingersoll commit in this spot? If you say yes, I don��t disagree. If you say no, I can see that point, too.

Ingersoll told me he put his opponent on a range that included Ax10x+, 5x5x+, and KxQx+. A solid analysis, as a short-stacked player would certainly shove all those hands after action folded to him in the cutoff. Usually I might assess an even wider range �� maybe Qx10x+, 2x2x+, and any two paint cards �� which seems logical given his past shoves.

However, in this case I��d actually shrink my perceived range a bit given all the shoves. In my opinion, it��s unlikely he��d shove light so many times in a row as the more he does it the more likely he is to be called. In other words, I think Ingersoll��s assessment of his opponent��s range is pretty spot on.

Given that range, then, his opponent could only hold four hands that have him dominated �� AxAx, KxKx, QxQx, and AxKx. At this point I��d be asking myself, would he really open-shove with aces or kings? Wouldn��t he want a little bit of action? If so, why not just raise a bit? Sure he��s short, but he��s still got enough to tease it to say 1,500.

While I wasn��t there to observe the player, I could see myself discounting the two best hands in poker. So, if he had Big Slick I��d be in big trouble, and with pocket queens I��d at least have an over. Anything else in his range, well, I��m either dominating or flipping. I won��t say I��m calling off 100% of the time in this spot, but based upon the circumstances and my reads, I think more times than not I am.

��I decide to make the call assuming I am going to have to race here soon with such a low ��M�� and that this might be my best spot as he could be shoving with even a wider range possibly,�� said Ingersoll. ��The results aren��t good as he is holding AxKx-offsuit and it holds up.��

Without a doubt, ace-queen into ace-king is the one situation I��ve seen decimate tournament dreams countless time and again. In fact, it��s how I busted my first-ever in-the-money WSOP run. It happens frequently, and it sucks to be on the wrong end.

��Everyone tells me I made a good run to be proud of and I kinda am, but I also blew the situation,�� Ingersoll chastised himself. ��I hear in my head ��Never go home with a queen in your hand.�� I also wonder about folding and shoving later with some fold equity being better than calling off a shove, but I am quickly running out of having enough for fold equity.��

Like I said, my first impression was I��d rather be shoving with ace-queen than calling off, so I certainly understand the inner turmoil Ingersoll is experiencing.

That said, through my amateurish exploration �� which is far from a thorough mathematical analysis (anyone out there want to run the numbers, feel free) �� I don��t fault the call. I think most players, myself included, go with it in that spot. However, Ingersoll��s hand is a prime example why it��s so important to proceed with caution and think things through.

Finally, I might add I don��t subscribe to the ��Never go home with a queen in your hand�� mantra. After all, I won a WSOP gold bracelet with a queen in my hand!

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PR & Media Manager for PokerNews, Podcast host & 2013 WSOP Bracelet Winner.

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