Final Table Puzzles, Pt. 1: Thinking in the Face of the Big Shove
Come, walk with me through a final table.
It happened Sunday morning, an ordinary $30 turbo, six-max on PokerStars. The kind you register to fill that extra table slot. I came into the final table with a huge chip lead on account of running unconscionably hot.
Once we were in the money, I shoved Ax7x, got called by QxQx and Ax10x, and scooped. Unconscionably. Hot.
But the deck��s kindness can reverse itself at any time, and once we reached the final table I was made to work for it thereafter. Let��s review that toil, starting with a difficult decision soon after the final table began.
A Raise, Then a Push
Once we lost the sixth-place player, here were the stacks in question:
Hero (UTG): 55 BB
Cutoff (CO): 47 BB
Button (BTN): 20 BB
Small Blind (SB): 19.5 BB
Big Blind (BB): 22 BB
And here were the remaining payouts:
1st: $2,205
2nd: $1,607
3rd: $1,208
4th: $840
5th: $630
On the first hand of five-handed play I am dealt Ax10x-offsuit, min-raise, and face a shove from the BTN. The others step aside. My opponent is a regular, which leads me to believe (among other things) that 10x3x is not in this player��s shoving range.
So I assign the player the following range of possible hands:
- AxKx down to Ax2x-suited)
- AxKx through Ax10x-offsuit)
- pairs from QxQx to 2x2x
- KxQx
- KxJx-suited
Why?
I think our villain would three-bet smaller with some nut set of hands. This range may be wide enough to include 10x10x and higher pairs plus AxKx, but I cannot be sure about that. Many regulars in this situation induce with a wider range than they should in theory.
Giving my opponent credit, or hedging if you like, I took out AxAx and KxKx, but kept those other strong hands.
Removing Flat-Calls
Now the BTN also might have flat-called with some of those hands, such as suited hands like Ax10x, AxJx, KxJx, and Jx10x. To solve this problem as we work out the player��s range, I��d point out two things.
First, if Jx10x-suited flat-calls but isn��t in the shoving range we��re assigning, that does not perturb our calculation.
Next, look back at those stacks in the blinds. This is a very precarious position from which to flat-call. Indeed hands like AxAx or KxKx might be the best flat-calls and nothing else because of the prospect of a three-bet squeeze coming.
My central argument would be that this regular will recognize that some hands that I benefit from having in a shoving range when I hold Ax10x �� hands like Ax9x-Ax2x-suited and KxQx-offsuit, for example �� will be folding or shoving because flatting is visibly precarious.
A Changing Landscape
So now that we have our opponent��s range, we can plug this situation into ICMizer��s future game simulator which in turn tells us this is essentially a break-even call, dollar-wise.
Of my four opponents, this player is the second best. If I fold I will have a similar stack, more or less, to the CO player on my left. If I call and lose, I��ll be down to 35 BB, and I��ll still have an advantage on the two blinds to my right. If I call and win, I��ll have the clear big stack at the table and the opportunity to wreak havoc. The player on my left will no longer enjoy parity with me.
I think this is close.
We are not going to be making a huge mistake either way, in all likelihood. I think my options are going to largely remain intact when I lose. I don��t have a positional advantage to maintain with a fold, but I can inaugurate a reign of terror if I call and win. I think that clinches it.
I called, my opponent had KxQx-offsuit, and I continued running well above expectation.
In the next part we��ll look at some postflop situations I found myself in as play became short-handed.
Gareth Chantler is a professional poker player who encourages you to check out the interviews, videos, promotions, and strategy articles at the Full Tilt Blog.
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