When the Minimum Raise is Maximally Wrong
The subject today is the min-raise �� that is, somebody bets, and you submit a raise that is exactly double that amount, which is the smallest raise you can make in a no-limit game. I want to address this very specific tactic because I see it used way too much by relatively inexperienced players. I��d like to explain why it��s usually the wrong move.
Note: A min-raise is a popular preflop opening move these days in high-level tournament play, with solid game-theory math to support it. But here I��m talking about postflop play in cash games, against less sophisticated opponents, which makes it a whole different animal.
First, an illustrative story.
I was playing a $1/$2 game at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas a few years ago. In early position, I had A?K? and raised to $8. Three players called. The flop was Q?8?3?. I figured that with the nut flush draw, that flop likely helped me more than any of the others, so I bet $20. One player folded, the next min-raised to $40, and the third folded.
Let��s do some math here. The pot was now about $90, and it would cost me $20 to call, making pot odds of 4.5-to-1. Will I make my flush on the turn? Well, there are 9 hearts remaining out of the 47 unknown cards, so the probability is 9/47, or about 19%, which translates to about 4.2-to-1.
This means that even if I have no implied odds (i.e., if he won��t put in any more money if I make the flush), it is mathematically correct for me to call trying to hit. If he has a hand with which he will lose more when I complete my hand, a call is even more profitable.
I called, then I got lucky �� the turn was the 4?. I checked, planning a check-raise. (In retrospect, a lead-out bet may have been a better plan, but that��s a subject for another day.) He disappointed me by checking behind.
The river was the 9?, which could not improve any hand with which he would have raised on that flop. I bet $55 into the $110 pot. He thought for a long time before reluctantly folding his 8x8x face-up.
I think this hand perfectly illustrates the main problem of the min-raise: It almost never accomplishes whatever goal the raiser had in mind.
- It makes sense to raise in order to make other players pay more than they mathematically should for a draw to a flush or straight, but a min-raise probably won��t do that.
- You might min-raise as a bluff, but that size looks so weak that it will likely get a call from anybody whose bet was not itself a pure bluff. A player with good reading skills might reraise you with nothing, just because the min-raise looks so weak.
- Perhaps the most common reason for a raise is to build a big pot with a strong hand. Surely it��s obvious that the smallest possible raise is usually not the way to build the biggest pot.
Now let me tell you another story, this one from a low-stakes (20-cent blinds) home game I played in just a few weeks ago. The final board was 7x4x5x3x6x, with no flush possible. A young woman bet $5, which was about the size of the pot. I��ve played with her enough to know that she loves bluffing in situations like this, where nobody will dare call unless they have a specific card �� in this case, an 8x.
I had just one pair, but when the only other player in the hand folded, I thought it was a great spot for a re-bluff. I raised all-in, about $30. She instantly called and flipped over not just an 8x, but 8x9x, for the stone-cold nuts. Oops.
In retrospect, I still think raising was correct, because she will more often be bluffing than value-betting here. What I got wrong was my bet-sizing. This is one of the rare situations where a min-raise would be perfect. If she has nothing, she will just fold, because she��s not brave enough to make an all-in re-bluff. Put another way, any raise size will win me the pot if she��s bluffing, but with a min-raise I lose the least if I��m wrong and she either calls or reraises.
I can think of a few other situations where a min-raise may be the best choice:
- You have a monster hand, know that an opponent is weak, and a minimum raise is the most you can possibly hope to squeeze out of him.
- You have an overly aggressive opponent whom you have reason to believe will read a min-raise as weak, when you actually have him crushed. Here the min-raise is a trap that you hope will induce a reraise.
- You have a lock on the hand (top full house, quads, etc.) and a whole raft of loose callers to somebody��s initial bet; a min-raise may be the best way to swell the pot by giving every single one of those callers temptation to put more chips in when they��re drawing dead.
But as you can see from that list, the spots in which a min-raise is optimal are few and far between. It��s a specialty tool �� like a sand wedge in golf. It��s great to have it in your bag when you need it, but it��s a bad choice in most ordinary situations.
If you have been in the habit of using a min-raise commonly, be bold and try instead a raise of perhaps 3 to 3.5 times the bet. I suspect you��ll find that it does a better job of making you money.
Robert Woolley lives in Asheville, NC. He spent several years in Las Vegas and chronicled his life in poker on the ��Poker Grump�� blog.
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