After 200 Hands Heads-Up, Was John Cynn's WSOP Main Event-Winning Call GTO?
In the latest GTO Wizard Hand Analysis we dive into the iconic hand from the 2018 WSOP Main Event between John Cynn and Tony Miles.
After 442 hands at the final table, and on the 199th hand of heads-up play, Cynn finally secures victory after calling a three-bet pre-flop from Miles and calling a shove on the turn. Using GTO Wizard, we break down pivotal decisions, examine equity, and explore how both players leverage GTO strategies to maximize their edge.
Preflop
Cynn opens K?J? for 2.25bb from the SB/BTN, then Miles three-bets to 8.5bb with Q?8? and Cynn calls. Both plays are standard so far.
3betting with a weak hand such as [Q8o] may look surprising to you, but it is actually approved by solvers. This is what we call a polarized 3bet.
By three-betting Qx8x, Miles is targeting Cynn’s weak AxXx and KxXx region such as Ax3x or Kx8x, which fold to a raise. Even after getting called, Qx8x has a decent amount of equity at 44.9% against Cynn’s range.
Flop
The dealer dealt a K?K?5? flop. Miles continuation-bets for half of the pot and Cynn quickly calls with trips, which are both standard.
This flop is as good as Miles could hope for, allowing him to bet any two cards for ? of the pot.
To be more specific, here you can see our analysis for both player’s ranges with EQ buckets. This feature allows us to quickly find strengths and weaknesses of ranges. We can see that Miles' range contains more Good and Best hands compared to Cynn’s range. That’s why Miles is allowed to bet everything profitably.
Disclaimer: At GTO Wizard we define “Good hands” as hands with 50% equity or more. You can switch the view to EQ buckets - Advanced for a more granular range deconstruction.
GTO Wizard: How to Play Pocket Jacks
Turn
The turn card was the 8?, bringing more possibilities for flush draws and giving Miles a pair of eights. He jams his remaining stack for roughly a pot-sized bet with his pair and is immediately presented with the bad news, finding out that he is drawing dead.
This is a very interesting spot, because we can see that the solver goes all-in for value extremely thinly, with Q8 specifically always jamming.
Here’s a breakdown of Miles' strategy on the turn:
Our observations:
- The best hands slowplay a lot (overpair or better)
- Medium made hands such as pairs of fives or better generally fastplay
- Draws play a mixed strategy - specifically the ones with higher EQ prefer checking
Basically, Miles needs to fast-play most vulnerable hands that have any resemblance of showdown value (even good Ace-high) because Cynn could otherwise simply check back the turn and realize the equity of his draws for free.
Cynn needs to call the jam very light with hands as weak as Ace high or naked flush draws like [Jd9d[ since there isn’t much stack behind, in order not to be exploited for overfolding. Miles recognized this dynamic by not hesitating to put in his remaining stack with a weak pair of eights. If Miles had a nutted hand instead, he would need to slow-play very often.
GTO Insight: Why should I slow-play nutted hands here?
In situations where the SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) is very low, you should slow-play your very best hands, since stacks easily go all-in by the river without betting on every street. The more robust your hand is and the more difficult it is to be outdrawn by your opponent, the more you want to be checking and allow them to improve to a second best hand. There is no reason to be afraid of your opponent hitting their two-outer, since the times they fall for our trap more than make up for allowing them to draw to a better hand and beat us occasionally.
Keep in mind that these are the best situations to bet for thin value, as your opponent is incentivized to call very wide when there isn’t much stack behind due to the enticing pot odds, pricing your opponent in so to speak. As long as the opponent needs to call you a lot, don’t hesitate to put them to the test with most decent pairs.
Conclusion: Does the Wizard approve?
This hand undoubtedly gets the GTO Wizard seal of approval. Both players played the hand perfectly down to the tee. There is nothing much to say about Cynn’s trips, as it was obviously an easy-to-play hand.
Miles on the other hand had to find a fairly thin value bet, which some players may not find in this spot, especially at the final table.
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They recently posted a video on YouTube on the fundamental theory of preflop poker strategy, which will help you improve your preflop edge. You can watch it here!
Hand analysis provided by Sotos in collaboration with GTO Wizard
