En-Route to 2019 WSOP Main Event Glory, Was Hossein Ensan GTO?
In the latest GTO Wizard Hand Analysis, we dive into a massive pot that occurred during the 2019 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. Hossein Ensan clashed with Timothy Su on Day 7 of the tournament and the result was a 116 million-chip pot!
Ensan won the pot before going on to become poker's world champion. However, just because he raked in a mammoth-sized pile of chips doesn't mean he or Su played the hand like a Wizard. Our good friends at GTO Wizard have broken down the hand, examined equities, and decided if Ensan and Su's play was GTO Wizard-approved.
Preflop
Ensan raised twice the big blind from the cutoff with 10?10?, and Su decided to bump it up to 8.5 big blinds with A?Q?. In theory, Su should have a polarized three-betting range here mainly consisting of offsuit broadways, such as Kx10x and AxQx, etc, and suited air like K?7?, Q?8?, etc, as bluffs, and TT+, AJs+ for value. Ensan should call with most of his range, and only four-bet with pocket aces and bluffs.
Since both players have the largest stacks at the table, there is less incentive to play big pots against each other, as both players already have secured a good spot, and risking it to win slightly more is not worth the reward. This is why Su should often call a lot of premium hands and why Ensan should only fou-bet with the nuts or nothing.
We explained this concept in more detail in our analysis of the hand between Korzinin and Greenwood.
Both players played their hands perfectly standard preflop, so let’s continue with the flop analysis.
Flop
The dealer fanned the Q?10?7? flop, and Su bet his AQ for roughly one-third of the pot. Ensan just called with his set, which is fairly standard as well.
Su should be betting high frequency (~77%) for a small size with most of his hands since around two-thirds of his range has at least a draw or better.
Ensan, on the other hand, has a decision here; he can either “click it back” and double his opponent’s bet at a 10% frequency, mainly with good top pair or better draws. Specifically, with sets, he should raise around one-third of the time.
Turn
The turn was the 7?, improving Ensan to a full house. On the turn, Su decided to slow-play with his top-pair top kicker. Interestingly, Ensan also slow-played his full house and checked back. Let’s see if there’s any merit to slow-playing here.
First things first: The 7? is a relatively neutral card, and although Ensan makes slightly more trips than Su here, it’s more favorable for Su because of the high density of good value hands in his range, which retain their equity on this card.
Since Su retains his advantage in equity on the turn, he should continue betting relatively often (~57%) with a small size within his range. Unless he holds exactly ace-jack, most of his hands can bet, including any pair (even under-pairs) and draws. Top pair top kicker should bet around two-thirds of the time here, with A?Q? specifically, mixing both options close to 50/50. Well played!
Ensan, when checked to, should slow-play his full houses often here because Su is still uncapped as he has the nuts still in his range, and, as we saw, the turn doesn’t help his range all that much. Pocket tens should check half of the time here and choose a half-pot bet whenever it bets.
GTO Wizard: How to Play Pocket Jacks
River
After both players had checked the turn, Su threw a roughly two-thirds pot bet at Ensan with his top pair when the 6? completed the board. Ensan responded with a raise almost three times the size of Su's bet. Su went into the tank for five minutes before reemerging with a call.
Time ran out for slow playing, so betting AQ always for around two-thirds of the pot is the optimal play here for Su. He can still slow-play hands that want to go for all of the cookies by check-raising. Checking a hand like AQ that can go for value but can’t check-raise wouldn’t make much sense here, as it’s the last street before the showdown.
Ensan’s decision to raise roughly three times instead of all-in for five times is interesting. If the solver is given the option to raise 3x and 5x, the 5x raise is only rarely chosen (see below), which we therefore deem a redundant raise size. He shouldn’t lose any EV by using that size, but for his overall range, it seems unnecessary and doesn’t add value to the strategy. Bluff candidates for his line would be hands with decent blockers to Su’s best hands, like suited queen-eight or ten-nine.
Su’s ace-queen facing the river raise is indifferent to calling and folding. The solution suggests folding roughly 40% of his bluff-catchers (including AQ) to make Ensan’s bluffs indifferent to betting or giving up. If Su would slightly overfold, Ensan’s bluffs would become profitable and vice versa.
Conclusion: Are they Wizards after all?
As we saw, both players did very well on all streets and it’s clear they understand how to play their value hands by using appropriate sizes. Ensan could’ve raised the river larger in order to use a size that’s consistent with his value hands, but this is just nitpicking.
Overall we saw a strong performance by both players, navigating the post-flop streets with ease. GTO Wizard definitely approves!
Hand analysis provided by Sotos in collaboration with GTO Wizard
